Elementary school students. (© Can Stock Photo / oksun70)Elementary school students. (© Can Stock Photo / oksun70)
Sarnia

School enrollment expected to decline at slower rate than previously thought

Enrolment has rebounded a bit at the Lambton-Kent District School Board (LKDSB), but it's not back to where it once was and that means some public schools remain on the chopping block.

The LKDSB is reporting total enrolment this school year of 21,572 students. Elementary enrolment increased by 319 to 14,591 students in total while secondary enrolment increased by 234 students to 6,981 students in total.

"The increase was the result of students returning from the home schooling program, students participating in the remote learning program, and continued migration to the area," read a report presented to trustees at the board meeting on Tuesday night.

LKDSB Education Director John Howitt said although there was a positive increase in enrollment this school year, the school board is still facing overall declining enrollment, with a 7.08 per cent decline in the overall student population compared to a decade earlier.

Howitt also warned that ten-year projections indicate that overall enrolment will continue to decline at "a marginal pace" and that by 2032, enrollment is expected to decline by approximately 308 students. In 2023, a high of 14,648 elementary students is projected, but in 2032, the elementary enrolment projection is 14,438, a decline of 210 students over the next 10 years. Secondary enrolment is projected to fluctuate over the next ten years due to larger elementary classes moving to secondary. In 2032, an estimated headcount of 7,227 is projected, resulting in a decrease of 98 students since the 2023 projection of 7,325 total students.

The outlook for September 2022 enrollment remains positive with a projected enrolment of 14,346 elementary students and 7,380 secondary students, according to the LKDSB.

The report stated the LKDSB is estimated to be at 76 per cent capacity for elementary schools and 66 per cent capacity for secondary schools in September 2022.

“We are pleased to see the positive trend in migration into the LKDSB’s catchment area and the benefits for enrollment and funding to support learning and resources in schools,” said LKDSB Chair Randy Campbell. “We are hopeful this trend continues, but we understand that we must make responsible decisions based on historical and current enrollment projections to ensure that we are maximizing student programming and funding allocations to best support student achievement and well-being.”

Currently, there are 15 public elementary schools and five public secondary schools that are under 60 per cent capacity.

The public school board also said 14 elementary and three secondary schools have been closed since amalgamation in 1998.

Due to the ongoing moratorium on school consolidations, the LKDSB is not currently permitted to move forward with its phased approach to addressing empty student spaces in its schools. There are some additional considerations and/or options the administration would consider presenting to trustees when the moratorium is lifted.

A full list of proposed school consolidations and closures can be found here.

Trustees also heard that the board's current annual funding is not sufficient to cover the current capital needs and is resulting in a sizable funding gap and the gap is projected to increase each year during the next 10 years unless additional funding is available.

The enrolment information is contained in the 2022 capital plan found here.

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